[The Funky Llama]

actually you might not need to check/fold the flop. Say its like a CO open raisor....you have pretty good equity and if you call 2 bets PFR can only bet the river with a decently strong hand I think. So you are putting in 3sb a lot and 5sb sometimes. If PFR checks the turn I guess we need to bet the river for value with our random hand (unless its like an A/K or something) b/c PFR's check means he has less than 50% equity vs a random hand. PFR will still have to call river though it seems.


Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.659% 59.47% 01.29% 7559088 163323.50 { 33+, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 87s, 76s, A4o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 39.341% 38.12% 01.29% 4845101 163323.50 { random }

I guess the question is : how much is your expectation lowered by not looking at your cards? Seems pretty tough to answer...I guess you would have to figure out the optimal strategy for PFR (how often is he betting the turn/river and your equity when u reach the showdown with random hand vs his range) and compare it to your average expectation with a random hand when you CAN see your cards (taken from Poker Tracker data or something).