[James.]

this situation usually sets up one of two ways. you are going to get action or you aren't. this may sound simplistic, but either they are holding a hand that they are going to give action or they are folding. if they have a pp it's around 4-5% that they catch on the turn. if they have two unpaired cards it's about 13%(each) that they catch on the turn. factor in that they might pick up a backdoor draw of some sort and these %s might increase.

but this brings us back to my original point. fish incorrectly peel with only a backdoor draw most of the time anyway so if they have one they'll often call the flop bet. so pretty much it depends on how loose a peeler they are. some players peel most flops so if they are that type you might be better off betting.

overall, i don't really think it matters. unless they boat up on the turn you aren't getting alot of bets in. so since the pot isn't big and you have a monster i don't see a huge problem or benefit from checking the flop.