[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Barron,

I'm referring to the official definition, something of which we wouldn't know for sure until a couple of years down the road (as you know). I was considering creating a post as to why I think the odds of a recession at this point are 95% (I said within the next two quarters for theatrics to be honest, but I do still believe there'sd a 50% chance of one hitting that soon).

I find it hard to believe how any rational person at this point cannot see the odds of a recession occurring over the next 12 months as being at least 50%. I'm basing my opinion on an extensive amount of research and would be willing to argue with anyone who believes the other side of the argument to be true.

Edit: As for a wager, something small and friendly would be fine (I'll make a shorter-term bet such as the Dow losing at least 20% of its value over the next 12 months). I'm currently making a big bet through my investments, so anything big would be risky.

[/ QUOTE ]
i'd rather bet directly on the recession.

can we peg the recession indicator to 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth in the next X quarters where you pick X?

1:1 on the bet?

so far i'm about to be 0/1 on bets in this forum. i have 3 total outstanding (2 w/ gonebroke2 and 1 2/ Mr.Now which i'm about to lose) so i'm happy to take on more "2p2" exposure as it were [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

lemme know your thoughts.
Barron