Re: Teaching an intelligent guy about a basic statistics concept
The law of probability doesn’t say random results will even out in the long run. The more coin flips that you have, the more likely you will APPROACH the true odds.
Example: if the first 10 flips are heads and every other flip is tails, heads, tails, etc, then after 100 flips, you will have 55/45 or heads will come up 55 percent. After 1000 flips you will have 505/495 or heads will come up 50.5 percent of the time. The more flips you have the closer the odds of heads coming up will be 50% even though, at all times, the first 10 flips were heads.
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