[tippy]

Ahhhh, opinions on how to trade. Seems like everyone always thinks their is best.

What is a trend to you might appear as a different situation to me. That is what makes a market. You see one trade I make and you assume that I'm not a trend follower and that I'm some type of contrarian bottom picker. Believe it our not I do both. But thanks for the trading lesson.

For some trades, you just have to take all the factors and information and determine the most likely course of action and analyze it against the risk/reward. Yes, I know I am trying to pick a turn here in the EUR/USD. I think I clearly stated that. Not all of my trades are like this one. This is one of those trades where I'm trying to catch a monster move. 95% of my trades are daytrades where I'm just following the trend taking little bites. Believe it or not, you can do both.

Kind of like picking up many little pots that nobody wants and maybe playing a big pot as a small dog. Strategy sound familiar????

There are alot of factors that suggest the herd is leaning the wrong way here. The market is pricing in rate cuts that may not be delivered.

There is a good chance this trade won't be successful. I'm defnitely a dog going against the trend here. BUT the payoff makes the play +EV, even though it doesn't agree with your "trendfollowing dogma". Kind of like calling with any two cards when the pot is offering huge odds. You probably aren't going to win, but the odds suggest that the play is +EV.

Open up your trading a little. Sometimes there are good trades out there that you are going miss with your strict "only follow the trend" approach.

As an aside, I added two lots and have the average at 1.4705. Lets see how it handles a retest of the highs.