View Single Post
  #2  
Old 11-28-2007, 09:21 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 3,633
Default Re: Overpair + random draws get raised

Hi Nohage - Welcome to the forum.

You have a better than average starting hand, probably the best currently at the table, and you look even better after this flop.

So you bet this flop. But then you get check-raised by SB.

The best hand SB could have, from your perspective, is arguably:
T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. And with that hand SB is about a 4 to 1 favorite.

But SB doesn't need a hand that good to check-raise for value. SB could have a set of tens plus two more or less useless cards, say
T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. With that hand, SB is only a 52 to 48 favorite.

I think people semi-bluff more than they actually bluff in this game. That is, they have something for their bet or raise. SB could only have the nut club draw, in which case Hero would actually be the favorite by about 56 to 44.

So you have to decide whether SB has a monster or is simply betting a hand that is probably close to your own in expected value. I don't know how you make that decision, which for me would be a difficult one. I'd lean towards calling, but I wouldn't like it much.

It's taken me a long time to compose this, and probably by this time someone else has responded with a better answer for you. Nonetheless, I'll post this because maybe my relatively naive point of view will be of benefit to you.

Buzz
Reply With Quote