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Old 10-10-2007, 06:08 AM
HonkDonk HonkDonk is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 9
Default Re: AK vs [censored] ratholer

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fold

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lol

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Why lol?

With a shove or a cc you have only EV+ if you play vs. 2 high cards (or sc). But imo only a maniac would push that vs. a UTG-raiser with to more players behind.

So you may expect here ~90% 22-QQ and you are 45:55 = 1:1,22 behind (Some people say its a coinflip, i say you are behind).
your odds are 180:147 = 1,22.
So what?

In ~10% (its imho a lot) you are in front vs BTN (2 high cards, sc) ~ 60:40
[(60*180 - 40* 147)/100] * 10% = + $4,9

Vs AA/KK from Button you are Behind a lot 8 (i forget it) .

If you shove you get calls only from pp`s (AK) and you are behind again ($594)1:1,22 (i forget it).

Maybe ~2% (its not a lot) you will see AA/KK from BB or UTG and you are 18,5 : 81,5 behind ($594)

= [(18,5*771 - 81,5*594)/100]* 2% = - $9,5

So imo (it was only a very fast calculation !!)

A shove is here ~~~~~~~~ $4,9 - $9,5 = -$4,6

i would fold.
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