View Single Post
  #41  
Old 03-29-2006, 07:40 PM
amoeba amoeba is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 7,353
Default Re: Save the money or burn it?

[ QUOTE ]
This pot is not that small. And QdQx will call on the turn since they may be ahead and if they aren't their draw may be good. But they may c/f the river. Particularly if an ace or J hits or whatever. Both for value and for protection there is absolutely no reason not to bet this turn. Even if you're behind, you have plenty of outs. And you are ahead a vast majority of the time and should not be checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

the pot is 1 preflop 4bb raise and a call , 1 flop bet. standard for any preflop steal + continuation. its small.

you have 10 outs with 1 card to go, about 23% or so. hardly great.

something like QdQx, JdJx is very much an unlikely holding here. you don't think villain repops preflop? or checkraises the flop if he thought he was good?

if he thought he was good when he check called the flop and you check behind on the turn and river blanks, you think he check folds instead of leading out or check calling?

This is how bad Lags lose money. they have a good hand but they think because of their image they are ahead of a huge range of hands and they run their hand in to a great hand lose their stack, and undo all the small to medium pots that they won previously.