Re: jj vs 4bet
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
This is pretty simple really. There is 92 in the pot right now, you have 175 behind, and villain has 140 behind. Assume he's never bluffing and his entire range to 4bet is represented above. The EV of shoving is:
.36(92+140) + .64(-175) = -$28
If his calling range does not change, but he is 4bet bluffing sometimes and will fold to a shove, we need:
92(x%) + (1-x)(-28) = 0
120x = 28
x = 23%
villain to fold/be bluffing 23% of the time to make shoving neutral EV against above calling range.
However, if you add AQ to his calling/4betting range our equity becomes 42%. If you include TT, it's almost 47%.
.42(232) + .58(-175) = -$4...........and that's with no FE.
The point of this whole post is that depending on exact villain tendencies, it's likely marginal EV in either direction. Even QQ only has 40% equity against KK+,AK. So just be aware that these are very high variance spots and deal accordingly.
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