[Michaelson]

I'm a pretty inexperienced tourney player, though I've had some okay results. Just got through playing the $550 Short Handed tourney at Crown Casino. I cashed, but I'm not sure aboutone of my last hands.

Basically I had been quite lucky throughout, very aggressive and had a pretty laggy image. I had to shut up shop for a while as a result of this, and I had been pretty card dead. So the blinds are $3000/$6000 and it is folded around to me in the small blind. I have about $60,000 and the big blind has $42,000 after posting.

So anyway, this guy is pretty tight, and I think probably the weakest spot on the table (except perhaps for the drunken and maniac chip leader 2 to my left, but he's not going to give up on his blinds easily). I look down at K3 of diamonds, and I push. He picks up AK, calls and wins the pot.

Now is this a standard push by me? I attempted to crunch the numbers, but I suck at maths so I was wondering if someone could double check for me...

I figure villain calls with AJ and better and 88 and better. I think that's a pretty generous range, and it constitutes 6.8% of possible holdings. Against that range I have 31.4% equity if called.

So, 93.2% of the time I win the $9000 pot without a fight. 6.8% of the time I am called. When I am called, I win the $9000 pot + his remaining $42000 ($51000) 31.4% of the time, and I lose $45000 68.6% of the time.

So, the ev is:

EV = (93.2% * $9000) + 6.8% * [(31.4% * 5100) + (68.6% * -$45000)
= $8388 + 6.8% * ($1601.4 - $3087)
= $8388 + 6.8% * -$1485.6
= $8388 - $101.02
= $8286.98

Is that right? If so, I need to push preflop more often!