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you don't want C.C. to theoretically pitch game one of the ALCS?
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Regardless of what happens, the ALCS starts Friday and Game 2 is Saturday. Game 3 is Monday, Game 4 is Tuesday, Game 5 is Thursday, Game 6 is Saturday and Game 7 is Sunday.
Option A, Situation 1
48%) The Indians pitch CC tonight and the Indians win Game 4. Fausto starts game 1 in Fenway and CC pitches game 2 on full rest. Fausto is potentially available to start 3 games.
Option A, Situation 2
26%) The Indians pitch CC tonight and the Indians lose Game 4. Fausto pitches Game 5 and they win Game 5. Westbrook starts game 1 at Fenway, CC pitches game 2, and Fausto pitches game 3. Both aces still likely get 2 starts, though 3 is now unlikely.
Option A, Situation 3
26%) The Indians pitch CC tonight and the Indians lose Game 4. They lose Game 5. LOL.
Option B, Situation 1
37%) The Indians pitch Paul Byrd tonight and win. Sabathia starts Game 1 at Fenway and Fausto starts Game 2. Sabathia is now potentially available to start 3 games.
Option B, Situation 2
32%) The Indians pitch Paul Byrd tonight and lose. They pitch CC in Game 5 and win. Fausto starts Game 1 in Fenway and Sabathia most likely starts Game 3(Monday) on short rest, Fausto starts Game 4(Tuesday) on normal rest.
Option B, Situation 3
31%) The Indians pitch DESIRE_TO_WIN tonight and lose. They pitch FATTY in Game 5 and lose. AROD shoves his [censored] down Eric Wedge's throat so he chokes while Brian Cashman and Joe Torre lick his balls and collect raises.
If you compare each situation, having CC "ready" for Game 1 only has a marginal value at best and is offset by the increased possibility of Situation 2 or 3. More importantly, the value gained in increased chances of winning THIS series is unmistakable and worth much more in comparison. "Pitching game 1" is FPS and esp. bad when the staff is built around 2 aces where either one could potentially start 3 games.
Edit: I looked at some lines for tomorrow and tried to estimate some percentages to back my claim. I think they are reasonable but even if Byrd's win % is as high as 43%, it still wouldn't change the crux of the argument.