Re: Full Tilt satellite to $500 WSOP Super - pro called me a donk - am
I think this is a clear call but can't justify it mathematically. Anyone who thinks this is a fold:
What do you think your EV is in the OP's situation with stacks 3k, 6k and 16k and top 2 getting paid the same? What do you think it is with 6k, 6k and 13k? How do you solve this problem assuming equally skilled opponents? I can't solve it.
I guessed you have a 90% chance of winning a seat in the first one (ballpark correct?). Then for a fold to be correct, you need to drop to 70% or lower in the second one assuming a very wide range for the button (this is reasonable?). No way do you have as low as 70% chance of qualifying in the second situation, since the average of all 3 players is 67% and you have more chips than the other two put together.
|