Preflop: Villain called your raise, but that doesn't mean much since he's playing 77% VPIP. For those that don't understand just HOW bad 77% vpip is, it includes:
Basically, everything except J6o and down that aren't connected.
Flop: Villain c/raises us here. Pokey claims a small bet means any pair, but he didn't comment what a
check-raise means from villain. He does have maniac stats though, so let's give him a range of:
J9,JT,QJ,KJ,AJ
87,76
Let's do all the pairs as well - 22-TT (even though pokey says sets aren't in his range, I think a c/r flop, shove turn could definitely put them in his range)
Now, it's only $7 to call and the pot is 11.5+7+14=32.5
so we're getting about 4.64:1. This is pretty huge, and even with 2 overcards we can probably call. Let's run pokerstove against his range:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.243% 25.24% 00.00% 37486 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 74.757% 74.76% 00.00% 111014 0.00 { TT-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 97s, 87s, 75s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+, 97o, 87o, 75o+ }
In this spot, we only need around 3:1 to call. (This is a number you should have committed to memory - overcards vs. a made pair needs around 3:1. Coincidentally, over
pairs vs a lower 2 pair also have this same ratio.. i.e. AA vs 72 on a K72 board).
Turn: Well, we have a gutshot now, so we have a few more outs. Without pokerstoving this, my guess it's a pretty borderline call. ( 4.6:1 here ).
Using the same range as before, we now account for the turn T.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.438% 34.44% 00.00% 2182 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 65.562% 65.56% 00.00% 4154 0.00 { TT-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, J9s+, 97s, 87s, 75s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J9o+, 97o, 87o, 75o+ }
So, we only need around 1.85:1 here.
So IMO, if your read is correct, yes, we can call both bets.