[Micturition Man]

For people who do teasers the most valuable reference I know of is Table 20 in Wong's SSB.

It is Wong's semi-subjective attempt to quantify how often the NFL favorite wins by various scores. (Famously they win by three 10% of the time and by 7 6% of the time.)

To the extent that these figures are reliable you can calculate the EV of any teaser possibility at any price, assuming you are confident you have a 50/50 market line point spread to start with. (And even if you don't you can always assign a reasonable margin of error to your market line and see whether the teaser is still +EV).

But I have some lingering doubts I haven't been able to get over about using table 20 to calculate cover % of big favorites (let's arbitrarily say -9.5 or higher).

Wong's methodology in compiling the table was to look at how often there was a push against the 3 when the favorite was from -1 to -5. Against the 7 when the favorite was from -5 to -9, etc.

My problem with this is that surely as you move up a point the distribution of scores moves too. For example if a -3 team wins by three 10% of the time, a -9.5 probably wins by 3 less often (which is offset by winning by say 7 or 11 more often).

This difference could be very relevant when looking at the EV of some nonstandard teasers like 10-pointers or or a 6 pter that pushes on the 3.

On a separate note where can I get a ton of NFL data?