[shane88888]

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Ok.


Why is betting the river good?

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The pot is too big to fold (for me at least). We're going to call anyway.

The villain can be passive. He is probably more likely to call a whiffed AK than bet a whiffed AK. We've indicated we have a piece - I don't think he'll bluff A-high. A bet will give us value.

We've c/r flop, fired turn, and fired river. The fold equity we have is what makes bet/fold the play for me. If villain folds a better hand, then this is a friggin' coup. I think this is our best chance to get a fold.

After considering the c/r some more, I see some merit in the play. However, it is entirely opponent-specific. If we have been discipling villain with c/r's throughout the session, then I like the play. If villain is the type who doesn't want to look foolish by falling for two c/r's in one hand, then I like the play. But I would need serious, serious history with the villain to make this play. I would think that we would need to have used almost this exact line (successfully) on the villain before; it'll be hard to dodge a curiosity call getting 11:1. All in all, I find it hard to justify risking two bets here.

Since he can be passive, he'll probably only call w/ TT, JJ, or maybe AQ. So, if the villain raises here, we're obviously cooked. Safe fold.