Re: You know you might be a 5CD fish when ...
Methinks I worded this poorly.
Once the villian, ie fishy, sees that I'm drawing 1 out of the blinds, there's absolutely ZERO reason for him to hold a kicker with his AAKxx hand. He's clearly behind (or up against a hand that will net him zippo post-swap if it misses), so he should be drawing three, not two. That's mistake No. 1, and it's not up for debate.
If he's going to represent trips, I'm guessing if he bets out after I check to him, he'll get a small 2P to fold enough to make it a winner. IMO, a bet here is mandatory. That's mistake No. 2, and while I'm open to suggestions as to why it's not, the first mistake is nowhere close to being debatable.
In short, you're not doing yourself any favors by limiting your chances to win when it's even remotely possible that you're not ahead. False-carding 1 pair when your opponent could have two pair is one of those instances.
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