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Old 09-17-2007, 07:05 PM
n.s. n.s. is offline
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Default Re: 10/20:River nut flush,villain leads out and I just call on paired

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I disagree with everyone on the flop and the river.

On the flop, there was a bet-out and a call. I'd be wary of one of them having a queen. Plus you just calling might leave them unsuspecting that you have a flush draw.

On the river, I don't see why people think SB will overcall. He checked the turn and just called, so he doesn't have a Q and he is unlikely to have a K. Now a 3rd diamond comes and he checks again. If he didn't like his hand very much on the turn, he surely can't like it very much now.

BB checked and called twice; that sure doesn't look like a Q to me. Now he bets out on the river. His hand thus most likely improved on the river; unless it's pocket tens, hero has him beat and thus a raise is called for.

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This is exactly my thoughts when reading the OP. SB's bet out on the flop looks too much like a Q and I really don't want to have to pay 3 bets to see the turn when we can see it for one.

On the river, if SB is bad enough to overcall here with a weak hand, then he might just be bad enough to call 2 cold (but he isn't likely to call either way).

It's hard to put BB on a hand, but I think that his play looks like AJ as much as it looks like TT, and there's 6 combos of AJ and 3 combos of TT out there. If he always 3-bets with TT and we always have to call, then the raise is break-even. I think there are enough 2 pair and other stupid hands for him to have occasionally that raising is still best in the long run.
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