[tpir]

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Say your initial range for opponent inclues 50 hands. You eventually narrow the range down to 5 hands. Let's further accept as true Harrington's postulate that any opponent bluffs at least 10% of the time. For the tight opponent in this problem, we'll say it's exactly 10%.

So now you have 6 possible explanations. Your 5-hand range, and a bluff. From your initial range of 50 hands, the 5 hands each has a probability of .02. The odds of a total bluff now are: .1/((.02 * 5) + .1) = 50%!

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This is absolutely fantastic.

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I wish this part of the thread would have received a little more love. I realize that it might not be that useful to talk about since it's abstract and not something that would come across in a hand post since it can only be applied with a great read...(*inhale*) but I think it's interesting and has some merit.