Re: Why Sklansky\'s idea should not work
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Thus the market price is a better predictor then a random selected price, even if that price is likely to be off given your FA. Your coinflip ESP analysis would then apply, regardless of how badly mispriced the stock is relative to your FA value.
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A random price does not offer a neutral EV, it's clearly offering -EV. Pick a random price in the range of 0-$134,000 (Berkshire Hathaway's current stock price), which corresponds to the range of prices currently available on the exchanges. 99.99% of the randomly chosen prices would be dramatically higher than the value of a randomly chosen stock.
So while market prices are clearly better (offer more EV) than random prices, that fact does not make market prices +EV. As I've explained, EMT is based on the idea that market prices are neutral EV.
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DC, they are neutral EV, yes. What I'm saying is that if you have to pick one side of your FA value or the other, would you rather choose the market side, or flip a coin?
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