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Old 11-27-2007, 07:14 PM
Greeksquared Greeksquared is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Coaching
Posts: 217
Default Re: Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

"People on the Cards boards aren't even upset about this. They are upset at the poor clock management. 1:01 left with 1 timeout, and the Cards only get off 3 plays! "

Human stupidity will never cease to amaze me. Your coach threw away a 25 percent increase in the chance of you winning the game. This estimate is on the conservative side I believe as well.

You must also consider the fact that there is about a 95 percent conversion rate on PAT's, possibly slightly less for field goals on a hash mark.

For all those saying that any team will win significantly more than 50% to win in overtime, give me some kind of statistical data to back up the claim. I would love to look at all first quarter data the last 30 years and give a "win" to the team that scored first just like the rules of overtime. Normalize this for who recieved the ball first and you will see that almost no team would have more than a 55 percent edge in overtime. This would give a fairly accurate picture of what the best teams could hope for in overtime. I would even go as far to say any NFL team vs Missouri would not be favored more than 60 percent in overtime.

I feel like I want to make it my life long pursuit to change the way decisions are made in professional sports. These games are not very dificult to analyze and like I said previously most high school stat students should figure out the egregious mistakes these coaches are making.
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