[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Here are the 4 scenarios:

1. We push preflop and he loses: our stack is 62k
2. We SNG, he folds and would have lost: our stack is 58k
Result: We lose 4k chips

VERSUS

1. We push preflop and he wins: our stack is 26k
2. We SNG, he folds, and he would have won: our stack is 58k
Result: We gain 32k

So the question boils down to this: When the SNG is successful and he folds, is he folding the losing hand greater than 8X more often than the winning hand, or is he folding the losing hand less than 8X more often than the winning hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he EVER folds the winning hand, given any (reasonable) percentage where he costs us EV by folding the losing hand, this is worth doing even when he folds the losing hand so often that it's closely -$EV. In fact, it's way more than 8x, because sometimes he folds 44 on a KQ9 flop when he would have sucked out.

Given that it's the bubble it's like buying large stack insurance and will be thoroughly worth it just in the next 3 hands.