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Old 10-31-2007, 03:06 PM
McStinky McStinky is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 212
Default Re: 10/25 NL live taking chances with a flopped nut straight

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Foxwoods 10/25, 10-handed.

I haven't played much with villain before but I think he is a pretty solid player who knows how to fold. I am pretty much unknown to him.

Villain has 4500, I cover.

I am in SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Preflop
Villain limps from EP, two more limpers, I complete and BB checks.

Flop (125): 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Yay, I flopped the nuts. I lead out for 75 and villain raises to 350. I put him on 99, KQ, TJ, less likely 9Q, 9K, flush draw. What should my plan be here? My first instinct was to raise, but now I think I should be getting tricky here. If I call and then check the turn, he will most likely bet to protect his hand if it is a big one. Then I can tank forever and pretend like I have 9Q or something and reluctantly call. Then I can make a fake blocking bet on the river of 1/3 to 1/2 of the pot and he will have to pay me off. Obviously this is risky because the board could pair, a club could come, or a J or T could kill my action. But if you agree with the range I gave him, it seems like the extra bets that I almost definitely get out of him make up for the fraction of the pot I am giving away by slowplaying.

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i dont think the dude is any more likely to stack off on the turn as a loser than he is now but you are way more likely to stack off as a loser if a bad card comes, plus a flop call can be read as strong and get him to take a free card on the turn if he was raising a combo draw...i say ridiculous all in overbet youll be suprised by what calls you.

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I actually don't think he will stack off on the flop or the turn, which is why I want to call twice and fake block bet the river. I think I can get away from my hand if (and only if) he draws out on me so I think neither of us will stack off as a loser, and I am just trying to get as much as I can.

The crazy flop overbet idea is not so bad though because I don't really know this guy and there is some small chance he is a fool.
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