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Old 06-04-2007, 07:03 PM
stinkypete stinkypete is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: lost my luckbox
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Default reducing variance: the sklansky bux swap

these EV calculator programs are popping up all over the place, and even though nobody has managed to publicly implement a good one yet (it's a ridiculously easy task), the concept is extremely awesome.

people tend to say crap like "THATS NICE THAT YOU RAN BAD BUT HOW DOES THAT HELP YOUR GAME???" but that's actually the wrong question to be asking.

the correct question of course, is "how can you use these programs to increase your reward/risk ratio as a poker player?" and the answer is the online poker equivalent of running it multiple times, the sklansky bux swap:

1) get a group of players together and agree to swap sklansky bux
2) figure out how your group has run on all ins as a whole
3) figure out how you've been running individually compared to the group, and either pay the others or get paid so you're at the group average

the net result is that you reduce your variance significantly without changing your EV. it's a win-win situation for all involved, unless you're sick and you like variance.

the only catch is that you have to do it with people you trust to pay up and to report their hand histories/results accurately.

especially for high stakes players who play heads up or super short in highly aggressive games, it would reduce variance by a ton.

to understand how powerful this is, consider a player who gets all in coinflipping once every 100 hands. that's a standard deviation of (almost) one buyin per 100 hands that could be hedged away for the most part.

so the question is, why aren't people doing this?
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