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Old 10-22-2007, 12:54 PM
GrumpyB GrumpyB is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Down and Out in Paris and London
Posts: 94
Default Re: Extreme agression

I'm new to poker, but not to statistics, so I wonder whether choosing not to rebuy "for a 3rd time because he was running so hot" could also be described a kind of tilt?

The laws of probability are immutable; given odds in your favour of (say) 4 to 1 there will still be times that you will lose two (1 in 16), three (1 in 64) or even four times (1 in 256) in a row. But when that fifth chance comes around, regardless of whether you have just won four times in a row or lost four times in a row, the chances are still 4 to 1 in your favour.

OK, I may not want to take even the 20% chance of getting sucked out one more time by a moron, 'cause that'll just tilt me some more, but giving villain credit for powers to change the laws of probability is as mad as calling a big raise with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] because you just *know* you'll make your flush by the river.
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