[bozzer]

warning: uNL player.

using only 'at the table maths' I would

1. fold. i don't think we can count on the implied odds if we hit a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] river if we just call, and I'm not sure we have enough fold equity given the checkraise.*


2. I would normally want to fold AQo OOP to a 3b, but I could see a call here if willing to stack off with TPTK.*

I don't like the 2barrel on that turn card.

In this hand either our overs are good and we have low implied odds, or we are drawing to a K only and we have decent implied odds. If we're drawing to 10 outs we need 4:1 pot odds and we're getting 3:1. I think we might be able to extract ~$20 on the river if we hit, so case a is a thin call for me.

If we're drawing to 4 outs I think we'd need to average getting a PSB out of him on the river. That seems a bit steep, but achievable, so another thin call.

I think raising would be a bad idea since we'll be drawing mega thin if we get called and we might get shoved on a lot which would be annoying.


3. Villain could have a nut flush draw here as much as a set, no? If we think he'll fold a set to our represented flush on the river I think we can call, but if he won't we probably have to fold since it will be difficult to win the pot if we both miss our draws (he could check to induce a bluff with the missed FD with a set too much).


Thanks for the post, I'm really bad at estimating the implied odds I need at the table - what's the quickest way?



*I guess people checkraise lighter at 200nl so maybe we do have enough FE, idk. Obviously the 3b could be light given our and his position/image, but it's still not a great spot.