[Rocco]

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Please believe me, I have been diligently studying poker for 2 years, including every respected book written on NLHE (just now starting on Ed Miller's latest.)

You have to understand I have multiple degrees in math, engineering, computer science, and I've been gambling in varous forms for almost 15 years, and I can't help it if I notice serious flaws in mechanisms of thought that have become de rigeur in the poker community.


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Ok... Noted...

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The importance of relative stack risk considerations become apparent if you scale up the scenarios:

Imagine a tournament where every time you limp or call to play for set value you are not raised.

Now imagine an identical tournament but where every time you limp or call to play for set value you are min-raised and you call the raise (because you calculate your given implied odds based on cost-of-call and they always exceed your calculated required implied-odds).

In the 2nd tournament, on avg lose you twice as much stack utility each time you miss your set. You are much more likely to do well in the 1st tournament than in the 2nd.

Now play 1000 type 1 tournaments, and a 1000 type 2s. All else equal, the type 1 tournaments have significantly larger $EV.

The real problem with only concentrating on cost-to-call is that players tend to get pulled into assuming excessive relative stack risk. Opportunities tend to look better than they really are when rated on a relative basis.


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So... Multiple degrees in maths, engineering and computer science you said. Then you should know the importance of backing up your claims with a valid proof. Since I happen to have a Master of Science in computer science I know this is something they teach you during the first year when introducing abstract algebra and logics. And your example of the two tournaments is _not_ (NOT!) a valid proof that you have to take previously invested money into consideration when you calculate current odds. As already stated, this is something you have to account for before you make the initial call/raise, but I think most posters here in HSMTT know that.

So... No Q.E.D at the end of your post.

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If you have some other way to adjust for this problem, more power to you. What works for me when deciding when to play across events is to consider total chip outlay in relation to max payoff.

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If your opinion of 'works for me' is equal to cashing in 1/3 18-man tournaments, more power to you.