[meleader2]

i was about to make a new post but thought i'd put it here. This is a common situation:

You're sb/bb with AK. button raises. u 3bet. villain calls. you're first to act.






------------------------

villain raises 1.75$
hero reraises to 4.75$
villain calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

hero leads 4$.


gets called 60% of the time: -240$
gets folded 40% of the time: +390$

EV: +1.50$

--------------------------------------

villain raises 1.75$
hero reraises to 4.75$
villain calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

hero leads 3$.


gets called 60% of the time: -180$
gets folded 40% of the time: +390$

EV: +2.10$


---------------------------------------

villain raises 1.75$
hero reraises to 4.75$
villain calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

hero leads 6$.


gets called 60% of the time: -360$
gets folded 40% of the time: +390$

EV: +.30$


------------------------------------


suffice to say, if i've done this right (PLEASE SAY SO) the 3$ bet seems to be the best. it yields 2.1$/per play (on 100 trials).
alas i do not think most villains will fold for a 3$ bet, so 4$ is the next best bet.

This is assuming if ur called, ur check folding turn/river unimproved.
I'd like to see if we can add to this. For example, players having a high steal % this would be very effective against. also, the folds 40% is probably really really low, so if he folds higher than 60% we can bet even less and make more $ in the long run.

Please also note that if you're being cbet into on the flop for 4$, and you RAISE it, here's your new EV!





hero raises 1.75$
villain reraises to 4.75$
hero calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

villain leads 4$.
hero raises 9$ more to 13$.

gets called 60% of the time: -780$
gets folded 40% of the time: +550$

EV: -2.30$






hero raises 1.75$
villain reraises to 4.75$
hero calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

villain leads 4$.
hero raises 7$ more to 11$.

gets called 60% of the time: -660$
gets folded 40% of the time: +550$

EV: -1.10$







hero raises 1.75$
villain reraises to 4.75$
hero calls 3$.
blinds: .75$

pot: 10.25$ - .5$ rake

pot: 9.75$

villain leads 4$.
hero raises 5$ more to 9$.

gets called 60% of the time: -540$
gets folded 40% of the time: +550$

EV: +0.10$



so as you can see, just holding air (which should be obvious RANDOM HAND vs RANDOM HAND) you shouldn't raise a flop bet unless you know you're good a large majority of the time.

In actuality those call/folding %'s should probably be reversed. folds 60%, calls 40%, but you should know not to be raising a calling station anyway.