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Old 11-20-2007, 03:34 PM
tmcdmck tmcdmck is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 299
Default Re: $10/$50 HUSNG\'s preflop all in

1. Need to be ahead 570/1320 = 43%
2. Need to be ahead 600/1400 = 43%
3. Need to be ahead 1000/2800 = 36%

1. Usually fold, raise smaller PF.

I'd fold this. Villain has 22BB to start the hand, and (depending on reads) a shove is usually quite strong. He'd need to be pushing something like [AK-A8, 99+, KQ] for you to be good, and that's still close (45%). This would depend strongly on reads. This is one of the reasons I like a smaller PFR here.

2. Usually call unless he's a super-nit

At 14BB, you can probably expect somebody to be shoving more hands in this spot (again read-dependent), and AJ is worth a few more % points of equity. Against the range above, you've got nearly 49%, so I'd say this is a call against most opponents.

3. Usually fold, think about flatcalling his PFR

Hand 3: You're getting better odds, but the situation is worse. He raised preflop and then shoved over your 3bet. Is this the kind of opponent that does this with A9? 77? I would assume that people are shoving this fairly tight at the $50 level, and you've only got 30% equity here against [TT+, AQ+]. If he's been super-duper aggressive, this could be a call, but readless, I'd say it's a fold. Then again, if he's been super-duper aggressive, I'd flatcall the PFR and try to outplay him postflop.

Sidenote: can you PM me or post some info about the games at Cake? I'd like to know about the structure, availability and softness of games, etc. - rakeback would be pretty sweet.

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yeah really good analysis. i agree, though would not have put it so eloquently.
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