[RobNottsUk]

I've pondered this one, and having had top set and finding that marginal, also frequently have nut full on turn outdrawn, I'm really questioning the value of your set on the flop. This is partly due to the huge implied odds created by Villain1's loose play.

See in a way, your 5's are 'blockers' to the wheel str8, but now that's unblocked. Yes it's a mostly Hi board, but what cards do you actually want to see on the turn?

4 3's - Very good, give you str8 draw + 2nd Nut Lo draw improvers to defend your hand.

1 5 - Will you get paid if you hit that?

4 A's - 2nd Nut Lo draw, but put 3 to broadway str8 and gutshot wheel str8 possibilities.

6 2's or 4's - Put a Lo draw on board, and wheel str8

12 6's, 7's or 8's - Put middle str8 on board with known loose player, as well as making A2/A3 Lo draw

Now Hi cards

6 K's or J's - Either scary and tough to get paid, or make invisible outdraw easy on river

12 Q's..9's - Put 3 b'way str8


So you likely have best hand right now, but you're not going to know where you are on the river unless you catch a '3', '5' or an 'A'; and avoid 'bust' cards.

Can we get value from bottom set? Well looking at Villain2's short stack, the problem is that you'ld like to set him All In on the turn, and not have a river decision.

Therefore, if Villain1 behind you would bet any kind of a hand, if you check, I'd like to see what Villain2 does in response. If it's a check/raise, I'll put him on a higher set, or a big wrap, or a hand that's 2nd best now with lots of ways to improve and be done with the hand, feebly avoiding losses later in the hand.

If Villain1 bets, Villain2 just calls, now you can re-pot and get most of Villain2's money in before the river.

If there's no action on the flop, Villain2 may lead out on the turn anyway on back of draws, depending on the card you can raise, fold or call.


As is, I find it hard to see how Villain2 can call with just the low rundown, or A3 b'door Lo draw. I think the Nut Lo was most likely made, with some Hi hand like a pair.

Due to Villain1 being a calling station, Villain2 is benefitting from great implied odds, making it very hard to extract value from your hand on the flop. This means with, lots of backdoor possibilities, Villain2 can call with very many hands, that would be folded against 1 TAG player.