Thread: KK in NL cash
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Old 03-06-2007, 11:36 PM
jeffnc jeffnc is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,631
Default Re: KK in NL cash

OK we haven't distinguished the cases where you're pushing or calling a push, or how many bets there have been.

Let's do some math. Assume this particular case. You raise, get reraised, you 3-bet, and your opponent pushes. Let's say the hands you face are AA/QQ/AK. Now like I said I've been seeing 100% AA - I have to believe that's just variance but what are good players really pushing there? Give it

AA - 70%
QQ - 20%
AK - 10%

Against that range KK is only 36% equity. Change it to
AA - 60%
QQ - 15%
AK - 15%
semi-random - 10%

And you get up to 40% equity (I'm not seeing a situation that good, I don't know if you guys are).

For 36% we need 1.78:1 pot odds to be profitable. So with $200 stacks, raise to $6, get reraised to $18, reraise to $55, opponent goes all in, there is $255 in the pot and $145 to call which is 1.76:1. So I think it's pretty damn close in this case, and not necessarily +EV by any means if that range is about right. You're going to lose $55 here whether you fold or call.

But what if the range were
AA - 80%
QQ - 8%
AK - 8%
semi-random - 4%

Then we've got 29% equity and need 2.45:1. Now folding loses you $55 and calling loses you $85.

It really doesn't seem unreasonable to me to see AA here 4 times out of 5, but others might think differently.
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