Re: Swings in NLCASH
It should be obvious that it has to be lower .
P(bust in one month) + P(bust after first month ) = P( busting out)
Notice that the two probabilities in the lhs are mutually exclusive . So the probability you bust in one month has to be lower than the probability you bust out if you play forever .
The formula I gave above is more useful for knowing your risk of busting out .
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