Re: (razz) OK rip me a new one
Via simulation: if he has anything at all (9 high) in the hole I'm barely ahead on 4th. If he has something like J 9- in the hole I'm ahead about 3:2. Not bad. I wouldn't expect too much worse. I would expect him to raise with total nonsensical crap but who knows. Lots of people rarely complete on 3rd. (In this session I got stung twice when multiple people in one hand limped with 3-to-a-wheel)
5th st is a surprise, I'm probably a 2:1 favorite against (9- 9-). Even if he has a miracle 34 in the hole I'm only a 3:2 dog. So yeah I think a bet is good there. Here's an interesting thing: because he has a J at best, drawing to a T (and thus needs 2 good cards if I catch) it doesn't matter if his range is 9- 9-, 7-7-, or even 5-5-, they all come out the same (2:1 in my favor). Only hand picked really bad hands (like 34, which is not only super low but also has 2 of my outs) make him a favorite. The results are a little polluted by the times he's paired his 2, but I'm still in the lead on 5th.
6th is pretty close. About 50/50
7th I consider raising only because he might fold T high. But I thought better of it and folded.
|