[Dave D]

First of all, really like the post, it shows some good thinking etc. Please read the FAQ though. For one thing, don't post results, that's explained in the FAQ.

Just so we're clear, this hand is with the same villian as described before right? Ie you didn't just give us those hands to describe your table image right?

So you say you picked the right villian to pull this on because you KNOW you're gonna get called right? And you KNOW you're probably flipping right (because he's called you with only 44 before)?

The issue here is more that flipping now is ok, but not awesome. It's just meh. 20 BB isn't amazing, and 40+ puts you in good position to go real far. There's a little tiny bit of overlay in the pot, so I guess it's techincally +EV, but very little.

FWIW pushing AQ is VERY standard here. There's no way you can call off ~1/4 of your stack with AQ. If he folds that's awesome, and I think you do have some FE here (against a random player, not this villian). Also against a thinking player (as this guy seems to be) calling off 1/4 of your stack starts to look pretty transparent, and the truth is I'd only do it with QQ+ and try to get it in on the flop. Or something.