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Old 07-22-2007, 12:57 AM
Jeff76 Jeff76 is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 3,268
Default Re: 3/6 River Decision

[ QUOTE ]
First of all - I don't like the check on 5th. Allows villain to take control of the pot, take a free card if necessary. I'm betting here.

[/ QUOTE ]Hmmm- it seems to me that we are either slightly ahead or way behind on 5th. I can't put him on any hand that is correct to fold on 5th (assuming he had a legitimate hand on 3rd), so when I'm ahead I'm only winning a fraction of a bet. However, he might easily re-raise me when I'm behind (and might even be drawing to runner, runner), which costs me an additional full bet I really don't want to pay.

At the time I was expecting a bet to go in (and I think one should have), but I really didn't want two bets to go in.

Is my logic flawed here? How important is it to retain control of the pot? Also, I can bet and still lose control, even if I have the best hand- he can always raise me.

[ QUOTE ]

Now...look at your board. AK6T, with two spades. I could never put you on a flush based from that, so I can't see villain fearing the flush at all. More likely he expects you to be reraising with Aces up here(or a rivered broadway I guess), and is 3-betting his rivered flush or straight. I think we have the best hand here about 70% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]This was my thinking at the time as well. Basically whether or not I should bet here comes down to what my chances are of being ahead- if I am ahead 50% of the time, it's a clear bet (since he can't raise again if he filled up). Unfortunatly, I still don't have a good enough feel for this game to know if, given this action, he is more likely to have a full house or a straight or flush. The 5th street check behind really confused me, because if he HAD bet there I think this would be an easier raise. I actually sat there for quite a while trying to make a decision.
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