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Old 11-16-2007, 03:34 PM
sqwisssssss sqwisssssss is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 583
Default Re: Shannon Shorr thinking of quitting ...

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But if they are not around for the long term (which is the lifetime of poker, not the player) how can you know if they would be a long term winner. Also, in order to be a long term winner you would need to consider every hand of poker that has ever been played which is in the trillions (probably more but I'm not sure what comes after trillions). What hands a player plays in their lifetime is still only a short term sample and therefore you can't say that someone is a long term winner.

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This (particularly the bolded part) is incorrect.

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It's not incorrect until somebody proves why it's incorrect.

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Partially because you're the only one who thinks that's what "long term" means, and partially because you're the only one who is unwilling to accept that anything with probability <1 can be called "true." If you want to redefine language usage, fine, but don't expect anyone to think you're making any sense.

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But my whole idea of "the long run" is because in a person's lifetime they may get the short end of the stick in situations where they are favorites to win. Ex. AK vs. J10, obviously we all know percentage wise that the AK is a slight favorite and in "the long run" AK will win more times than the J10, but the J10 will still win also. But a certain person may witness the J10 win more in their lifetime than the AK due to bad luck. That's my whole point in saying that no one will be alive long enough to see the long run. Because the percentages will play out over every hand that is ever dealt, not a person's lifetime.

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lol, first of all, ak is a huge favorite over j10........espeacially over the long run. it would take some astronomical bad luck to see ak get screwed to j10 in a life time of poker.

budblown, i know what your saying but it seems to me that you are trying to make a point about something that is not realisticly too likely.........but is possible.

what did robert deniro say to the slots manager in the movie "casino"?:

"cant you see you were getting scammed after the second jackpot? the odds of two people hitting the jackpot at the same time is in the millions, the odds of it happeneing 3 times in a row is in the billions!!!! ITS NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN........ IT "CANT" HAPPEN!!!!!!!!
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