Re: 99 OOP vs PF raise and cold callers
Edit to add that I didn't look really at the flop... I'm looking specifically at the fold.
You're either calling down or you're folding the turn ui. A 7 or a 9 on the turn would have been sweet. We'd expect someone in UTG+1 to be raising a tighter range, so I'd expect AJ+(16*3=48), KQ(16), KJs(4), 99+(6*5+1=31). So we have 68 unpaired overs and 30 paired cards that beat us. 68/(68+30) = 69%... so 31% of the time we're ahead here. We can probably reduce this, since it is hard to put him on overs when he bets the turn as well. A call-down would cost 2BB to win 7.25BB = 27.6% of your money into the pot. A very rough estimate of 31% compared to the pot odds of 27.6%... most likely your hand odds are less than 27.6% since he bet the turn. If he had checked, no doubt you'd be ahead of his range.
The fold is fine.
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