Thanks for doing some calculations iggy. Was walking home from class trying to do them in my head.. got no where.
Results
So this is what actually happened. I discounted any set other than tens... and by discounting I mean I thought there was noooo way he had KK,44, or 55, or AA for that matter. Really don't think he checks even the weakest AAxx hand here.
So the only range I could figure him for was AQJX and QJ9x w/ spades, KTxx, and TTxx...
My inclination was KTxx at first, but I suspect he bets flop with almost all KTxx hands as well (exclude hands like KT28, KT29, KT38... u know anything that doesn't matter an open ender/gutter to go with the pair. Just putting KTxx, TTxx, and the two big draws in without discounting anything I am 45%...
Anyways, I was running out of time so I pushed. I think TTxx makes up a pretty large percentage of his range and while he would make this play with KTxx everytime... I think this is a real small portion of his range.. real small.. top pair in posis in raised pot doesn't get checked often.
So I have roughly
$1,000 ev verse the draws * 50%
-$2,600 ev verse the TTxx * 40%
I'll say KTxx is 10% of range.. which may be generous
$1,750 ev when KTxx folds * 10% * 75% fold
$150 ev when KTxx calls * 10% * 25% call
$500 - 1040 + 131.25 + 3.75 = -405...
I guess long story short I don't feel like the draws (+$500 ev) dominate his range enough to offset the TTxx(-$2,600).
I'm sure there are holes in this analysis, but I think it is a fold.... like Gordo said, I come off as a nit.. i'm only 32/15 and rarely get caught bluffing in big pots (most bluffs on flop) so LS isn't going to be screwing around here much.