Re: What?
Here's what my thought process would probably look like
1) Look at pot/stack ratio and our hand
Ratio is < 5:1, pretty much excellent for a TP2K kind of hand -> We can felt it
2) Look at villains ranges and board texture
Pretty drawy board with two possible gutshots and a FD out there. The As makes the FD unlikely to be to the nuts (I don't think it matters at these levels since flush = nuts)
We don't really know much about the ranges of villains. 64/3 can have close to any two depending on how liberal he calls when his limp was raised (some people never fold once they have invested money etc), note that CO got good odds to call once MP had called so his range should be a little wider
No VPIP/PFR% for the other guy and we don't know if they raise any PP or limp the small ones.
I'm willing to put both of them on
a) Small PPs say 22-66/77
b) Suited connectors of sorts
c) Ax and Axs hands where x < T/J (as they usually should have raised, especially CO)
b) Any two suited cards for some villains
CO is less likely to have Ax or a PP here if he is a good player since he'd probably raise that hoping to pick up blinds+limpers money
Small PPs are least likely for both since most people tend to raise them
Options:
1) Raise the donkbet (minraise + push on turn if called) - my usual line since donkbet = weakish middle pair kind of hands a lot of times (assuming non thinking player). However if I have no other read a pot sized donkbet into a 3 way pot is highly unusual.
The usual weakish ones are between 1/2 and 2/3 the pot
2) Call - I'd do this only to bet if a spade comes on the turn. Big donk bet on 2 flush boards seems to mean "ZOMG I have a hand and don't want to get drawn out on". If you have a read that villain is afraid of flushes hitting and weakish + able to lay a hand down you can go this route.
If the third player calls as well I probably just check/give up on the turn
What beats us:
55 (99 is unlikely as he would have raised PF, 95 is unlikely ubless suited), A5, A9 (AK is unlikely since he would have raised)
What we want villain to have:
A2, A3, A4, A6, A7, A8, AT, AJ
Also possible:
3s2s, 4s3s, 7s6s, 8s7s, 9sXs
note: With a pot to stack ratio of < 5:1 I really don't mind felting this. Once we call we may or may not be commited anyways
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