[James.]

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First, if he is capable of 3-betting the turn with worse hands, then what I said has no bearing.

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gotcha.

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Second, I thought you said he was not aggro PF, thereby making 99/TT possibilities.

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yeah. good point. it's been a while since i posted this hand and actually forgot some of the details. he's a 7% pfr which is relatively nonaggro pf but we still need to include TT. i'll give you 99 is possibly a limp for him.

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And third, you are assuming he doesn't have a hand at all on the turn (or he has very little equity) and therefore you are assuming he will only fold to a raise. If this is the only possibility, then yes, of course, don't raise. But I don't think we can just assume he has air here; the turn card added a lot of draws, and if we are ahead, I think we ought to charge those draws the maximum. Especially if charging those draws costs us the same as calling down.

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most of the time he misses the flop. if he did hit the flop, he's usually betting. he does checkraise his good hands on occasion as well. since he mostly bets when he has a piece of the board, that would reinforce that he likely holds air or a very weak hand.

i'm not saying he never has a draw here, but i am saying it is a minority of the time he holds a draw. also, he bets the river improved or not so this means that calling is superior. why? because we still get 2 bets in the times he is drawing, we don't get faced with folding to a 3bet or putting 3 bets in as an significant underdog, and we get 2 bets in the times he has a bluff/very weak hand he would have folded to a turn raise. plus, there is some chance if we raise the turn and he calls we get faced with a river donk putting us in a tough position.

as far as "charging him to draw" and protecting our hand goes, given the pot size and his range this is not really that important. he's not folding a better hand and possibly 3betting a worse one. not a good recipe for a turn raise, but we discussed that prior. thanks for the feedback. i appreciate the debate.