[James.]

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I'm much more worried about what BB is holding than what BTN has. If BB checks behind us, BTN bets, and we check then check/raise, we put a lot of pressure on BB to fold quite a few hands that we would love for him to fold--things like A6-A4 in particular, but also hands like TT-88 that he might well have called with preflop; to say nothing of gutshot draws with hands like 98s that we wouldn't mind getting rid of. Admittedly, it becomes less likely that he's holding an overpair or A6 if he checks behind us, but you see my point. And if BB is indeed "taggish", then I don't think it's a stretch in the least to expect him to raise a lead bet with many of those same hands.

Based on stats alone, BTN seems very much like the sort of player who will bet this flop with ATC if it's checked to him, and we're either ahead or drawing pretty healthy against a lot of his ATC combos.

Rico did an excellent job of summing up a lot of my concerns on a board like this, which I was too lazy to try to type out myself. From a single street point of view, there may well be some value to betting in this scenario. But I think the hand becomes much easier to play when we give up the lead on the flop, and especially if we can then use our check to isolate on a loose/aggressive opponent. I believe that this makes checking a better option...and if it does check around, we can likely take the pot down (or at least deny odds to nearly any draw) with a turn bet. Particularly if your table image is solid and you are viewed as a somewhat tricky but generally straightforward player.

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I agree BB is more of a concern than button. That doesn’t mean we need to be scared of him until he gives us something to be scared of, though. I think I’ve pretty much decided the EV of betting or checkraising is pretty damn close. I say this because if you factor the value you gain from loose peels by overcard draws and gutshots that proceed to fold the turn(and the very rare occurrence that we take it down on the flop) with the value we gain from the c/r the times it doesn’t check through should be pretty close in overall net gain. The big variables in this hand are how my opponents react to a PFR who checks the flop OOP, how they play weak draws, and how often they bluff/semibluff.

BB close to never has a pocket overpair on this board. Even a mostly passive players in this game would 3bet 88-TT pf(most likely 77 as well). Also, BB never, ever checks a hand like A4-A6. I do agree he might raise my flop bet with A4-A6, but given that we hold an ace and there is a 4, 5, and 6 on the board we are talking about a very limited number of combinations compared to the myriad of other holdings(connectors/suited hands, etc.) he could have. So what I’m saying is he is much more likely to be holding a 3-6 out overcard, straight draw, or flush draw than a pair with ace kicker that has me dominated.

I agree that button typically bets a wide range when checked to, but he will likely hold a certain amount of skepticism about the situation after I raise pf and check the flop 3handed.