Re: the proof is in the pudding
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If he's actually 60% to win a game, his "true" line for that game is -150.
Switching subjects, if the widely available line is -110, a 60% win rate represents a Kelly stake of 16% of his bankroll on every game. At half-Kelly, 8% per game in isolation.
If you were taking 5 simultaneous games per Saturday, that would be 40% of your bankroll in action at Full Kelly stakes and bankroll growth of 60% per month.
At half-Kelly you'd be talking better than 25% bankroll growth per month with close to 30% of your roll in action on five simultaneous games per weekend.
-P
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And retirement somewhere along month 27 along with bankrupting Pinnacle.
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