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Old 02-16-2006, 02:11 AM
rotanimod rotanimod is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: the new(b) guy
Posts: 41
Default Re: observed hand: crazy flop action with bottom set on dry board

I think SB's hand range after the initial bet and cold-call does not include any one-pair hands. I don't think it even includes the worse two pairs, but I'll include them anyway. A draw is very unlikely IMO, I don't think 64 or 42 leads here into 7 people. So: JJ, 55, J5, J3, 53.

MP1's hand range is more wide, as he's only just raised a weak bet (albeit still into a wide field of players). I'll give him QJ, KJ, AJ, 64s, 53s, JJ, 55.

CO is scary. A big reraise after a bet and a raise in an 8way limped pot. In all seriousness, what hands do this. This is not a semibluff unless villain is pretty crazy. I know it's an "unknown" but I get the feeling someone who would semibluff with 64 here would become known very quickly. I'll give him 53s, JJ, 55.

Pokerstoving...

3,307,880 games 1.172 secs 2,822,423 games/sec

Board: Jd 5c 3h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 08.8130 % 08.81% 00.00% { 33 }
Hand 2: 16.6046 % 16.60% 00.01% { JJ, 55, J5s, J3s, 53s, J5o, J3o, 53o }
Hand 3: 10.3633 % 10.36% 00.00% { JJ, 55, AJs, KJs, QJs, 64s, 53s, AJo, KJo, QJo }
Hand 4: 64.2191 % 64.22% 00.00% { JJ, 55, 53s }

Only 9% equity. If you give CO J5s and J3s, which is actually fairly reasonable given his position and all the limpers, your equity improves to 22%. If you pushed and got called in each spot, you would be a little better than break even with all the money in the pot.

However, if you do shove, SOMEONE is likely now folding. Probably only one of them. That chance makes you -EV! Plus my hand range for SB seems pretty optimistic. So...fold.

The crux of this problem is how often CO can be semibluffing here. I think with most even OK players, the answer is very near never. However, if you throw in 64s to his hand range, even keeping J5 and J3 out....

9,897,400 games 3.484 secs 2,840,815 games/sec

Board: Jd 5c 3h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.5445 % 28.54% 00.00% { 33 }
Hand 2: 21.6521 % 21.60% 00.06% { JJ, 55, J5s, J3s, 53s, J5o, J3o, 53o }
Hand 3: 08.5228 % 07.63% 00.89% { JJ, 55, AJs, KJs, QJs, 64s, 53s, AJo, KJo, QJo }
Hand 4: 41.2805 % 40.44% 00.84% { JJ, 55, 64s, 53s }

BAM! Your equity is now 28%.

Errors, let me know. This post is too long.
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