Re: 200NL - TT OOP 3way pot. wtf!
I like this hand. There is a lot here.
I am a bit skewed by the fact that you told us information that you didn't know at the time. I will try and not use that information.
PF: I am not sure if I like the 3bet. You will most likely be out of position the entire time and TT is not that strong. You mention that one of the players is a good loose aggro player that you respect. Being OOP against him is going to suck. I would probably 3bet 30% of the time and call for set value 65% of the time and fold 5% of the time if MP was like 6/2 or something ridiculous.
Flop: I would b/f the flop. You have second pair and neither opponent can continue very well without a K or better. What was the plan with the check? Were you going to C/F I assume.. C/C??
Turn: Bet is fine. 42 is fine.
River: You have put 60 of 197 stack in the middle so far. There is $144 in the pot.
Options:
Value Bet: I doubt you are getting called by worse here. 77 is possible but that is the only hand that I can put him on that could get to the river. I don't see enough value in betting here.
Check/Call: You have an aggro opponent that has made it through a good bit of action to get to the river. There weren't too many draws throughout but the few that there were failed. I don't hate a check and call a reasonable bet... HOWEVER!!
He pushes a psb on the river:
He is pretty confident that you don't have a K from your flop check. He can't have JJ->AA since he didn't 3bet pre. I am pretty much smelling either air or a set. I smell a set here. Against a 19/13 nit I am folding fast. Against a 40/30 donkey I am calling fast, but this guy is right in the middle.
In the end, I don't think that I can call and put him on a set enough more than air (and possibly a K). It is close though.
Thoughts
SMS
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