I made this little spreadsheet to draw random results graphs based on finishing distribution. Perhaps it could be useful to help demonstrate variance to someone in a more visual manner than the ROI Simulator and a less soul crushing one than experience.
The results seem pretty much just like searching for winning players on sharkscope, but it's perhaps reassuring to see what swings can happen with no "tilt" or change in the players skill whatsoever.
I don't have anywhere to upload it hopefully this is ok.
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=6VVWLJ1Q