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Old 09-29-2007, 11:03 AM
Eratosthenes Eratosthenes is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 306
Default Re: Stars 20/180 TPTK River Decision

Going with your read on UTG+1: His most likely limp-after-limper hand at small blinds is a small to mid pair + some suited connectors and suited aces. I think the pair is more likely. Based on that starting hand range, his flop bet looks like a set. You have the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], so his Axs didn't flop the nut flush draw and his bet seems strong for a flush draw with a suited connector, unless it was Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. It is also possible that he has limped with J9s or QJs and is betting 2 pair or top pair.

You have to figure that he is going to pay off a moderate bet if you hit your flush, so I'm OK with calling flop and turn.

On the river he is offering really good odds, but has played the hand strongly and I suspect a set. I don't see how we are good here, but a crying call isn't that bad, considering the pot odds.
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