[cnfuzzd]

All,

To further illucidate my thought process:

Preflop is in no way standard for me. I think its somewhat appropriate for this table though, as i had seen a couple of peeps who were willing to felt with things like naked aces when they thought they were ahead. This would seem to contradict what i say next, but it doesnt really in that these people aren't stupid, they just seem to always be paranoid that the big repot of their flop bet is always someone trying to steal from them. I was confident given the way that the action appears, i was getting called by very little from the players between me and the CO.


These games feature fewer players who are willing to gamble it up with big(but not huge/nut) draws than some of the higher stakes games ive played in. Most people, if given the chance, would, without a compelling reason to do otherwise, fold many of the draws that have me severely crushed. More importantly, except for the one largish stack in the middle, no one can possibly believe they have much fold equity against me, so the possibility of anyone moving in without the nuts draw is very slim. I think this is very often going to get folded back to the CO, who calls almost everytime.

AS for the co, he started the hand with 26bb's, and after the pf action he has the perfect stealing position. There have been numerous situations in which i watch the short stack in last position make a psb after being checked to and for good reason. Any hand he has here is going to probably win what for him is a reasonable amount of the time, and he can price himself in, and he is wanting to bust so he can rebuy or leave the table.


I also considered his stack size in relation to my raise. As long as everyone folds, im getting around $70 of my raise returned, so while my raise appears to be a very strong move with a large investment, it is in fact risking a relatively small amount. I understand that my pot odds arent great, but if im in a coinflip situation here, im fairly happy with my move, because i expect to make up any lost ev later in the game.

This is probably the most nebulous reason for the move. To me, this is a great way to cultivate a very gamboool type image at a relatively low cost to myself. The better players in this game, including myself, get to be that way simply by paying attention to who repots with what, and adjusting accordingly. While the best players in this game will never be fooled into make a truly stupid move against me because of this hand, this is a wide swath of players who will instantly see this hand and say "jesus, that move/guy is terrible." (one 2p2er who saw the hand said that i was terrible at omaha, and shouldnt play) These are the players that i feel will take my winrate above and beyond the normal expectancy, so if i can create a false image of myself to them, im more than willing to take a bit of negative expected value.


peace


john nickle