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sorry as you all know i am a complete novice, so could i please check that:

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now i know that you can at least purchase renminbi (yuan) futures from the chicago mercantile exchange. i posted the link to get them. they cost about USD 125k but only require a maintenance margin of less than 10k (couldn't get an exact quote but 50:1 would be 2500 and 20:1 would be 6k).

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say i need a minimum margin of 20:1, so i put down $6k. i then have an effective position of $125k in yuan. if that position then goes down to $119k then i need to make a margin call (?) and put more down if i want to continue with the position?

sorry just i only spreadbet where i can have a guarenteed stop loss, whereas am i right in saying that if i had $6k margin deposited but then my position dropped to $100k, i would then have to deposit another $19k?

i will likely buy 1 contract i think, i doubt i want to risk any more than $10k. any thoughts of likelyhood of it dropping 8% and bustoing my $10k?

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the margin adjusts daily. i don't think it will busto 10k by a long shot if it is 50:1 margin, and even at 20:1 it is a greater change, but still not likely since i think the margin rule is you have to lose some big chunk to get a margin call (not sure exactly what it is for the contract at hand).

also, that onida thing i'm gunna go check out to see what the rules are there.

also, the value of the futures i'm sure are determined in some huge way by the probability of the yuan being more freely floated. so good economic news from china or higher inflation from china (or vice versa in the US) would either a) increase the likelihood of more interest rate hikes in china and thus more "inching up" of the yuan, or b) lower rates in the US which makes it harder for the PBoC to keep the yuan at the peg (i.e. they have to sell more yuan).

i don't think they''ll be any shortage of those 2 news bits coming. hope this helps,

Barron