Re: A priori odds against Miami winning by exactly 1 point?
Everyone will give you a different answer for that question, but I personally use the recent history of actual margins of victory to calculate a rough approximate to the odds of a team winning by a specific number of points, and I seperate home and away data sets. A home team winning by 1 point figures to occur a little less (3.66% of the time).
The most important number is 3, as home teams win by exactly 3 points roughly 15.14% of the time, and away teams win by exactly 3 points roughly 17.54% of the time.
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