[digdeep]

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Willing to share any of the trends you see with the 2H plays?

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I don't play trends and don't use any mechanical systems for the NBA. Better to work on your capping and understanding of the teams and situational dynamics.

If you're looking for a system to utilize in the meantime, while working on your capping, then there is one at another forum that appears to have some substance, where you bet the 2H total in the opposite direction of a 3pt game total line move.

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The below seem like they may be good plays - but it is pure speculation on my part; pts are just guesses -
1- If favorite is winning at halftime by > 10 pts -> bet dog 2H
2 - If dog is up > 10pts at half -> bet favorite 2H
3 - If lead by either team is < 5 -> bet favorite 2H


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My thoughts on these:

1) Cannot use this blindly. Do not think it would be good with big favs playing inferior teams. Perhaps with more closely-rated teams where your capping favors the dog.
2) Again, cannot use this blindly. Can use if your capping favors the fav, although it depends on the game flow and matchups.
3) Do not like this at all.

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2H Totals -

Bet under if 1H goes over? vice versa
Bet over if 1H goes over / vice versa


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What are you saying here? Is this a typo? In any case, there is no mechanical trend I utilize. Simply analyze the pace and game flow and cap the 2H.

(Un)fortunately, I do not think there are any shortcuts here. You simply need to put in the work to become a good capper. Far easier to become a good line shopper and look for inefficiencies, although more time consuming. FAQ and other threads have good info on becoming a better sports bettor.

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Thanks for reply... I wasn't looking for any hard and fast answer, nor was I trying to find the holy grail. I was ultimately speculating on two different strategies/concepts:
1- mean reversion
2- momentum/continuation

I presented some crude theories in my previous post to represent both concepts - any or all of which may be effective/ineffective.

thx