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Barron,

How about a small wager of exactly 100USD between us, in which you bet against the price of the GLD ETF as of yesterday (Friday close) being higher 6 calendar months hence?

I take the other side of the even money wager-- betting on a higher GLD price 6 months from the Friday close-- even though you are cocksure that gold prices are definitely heading lower, and you are (in theory) therefore supposed to lay me very favorable odds.

For the record, I am not a formally trained economist [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

This is a friendly wager, (even money), and a spectator sport, designed to entertain and perhaps even educate some of the readers of this forum.

I realize my English may not be perfect. What say you?

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sure, 100USD 6mo from friday's close (December 8th 2007)

the reason you can't give odds in these scenarios is because a lot can happen in 6 months. downside inflation pressure could delay the bundesbank & BOE, & BOJ from raising rates thus prolonging the liquidity boom while growth could surprise down slightly pushing demand for risky assets up.

further, i could be right and gold falls but then lets say i'd want to cover the short, i couldn't. i'm locked in for 6 months.

but i'll agree to the friendly wager of $100 in hard US currency payable via some poker site or whatever.

GL (and get the gold etf close as of friday and post it here)

EDIT: gold for august delivery closed at 653.1. the ETF you linked had it closed at 64.22. which would you like to use (i.e. on december 7th, since the 8th is a saturday, we can either use gold's close for february delivery, or the ETF you linked).

thanks,
Barron